Tag Archive for: Mobility

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The most advanced cars sold today still require the driver to be aware and ready to take control. But soon, many autos won’t have any driver controls, save for the interface for inputting the destination. Set the target and the car will take care of all of the work. It sounds like science fiction, but Ford has already announced that by 2021 they will be selling fully autonomous cars without a steering wheel or any driver controls.

Describing this future of autonomous vehicles, many have a visceral reaction to the idea of giving up control of their beloved car. Baseball, hot dogs, apple pie, and Chevrolet…there’s no doubt that American’s love their cars. Clearly, a portion of drivers would install square tires before they gave up their steering wheel.

That said, as camera sensors evolve and software algorithms improve, the societal benefits of self driving cars will become widely understood. In the long run, removing humans from the driving equation will increase safety, reduce congestion and improve overall efficiencies.

There’s really no debate whether these self driving cars will be safer than humans. Researchers at Virginia Tech have run the numbers and determined that Google’s fleet of autonomous test vehicles are already today safer than the average driver…and the software folks are just getting started. Robots aren’t distracted, don’t get tired and certainly don’t consume alcohol. You might be thinking that you’re a much better driver than the average Joe, but unless you have the reflexes of a fighter pilot or your last name is Andretti you should get comfortable with the idea that eventually robots will drive more safely than you.

Logical arguments like safety won’t be enough, however, to convince red blooded Americans to take their foot off the gas or their hand off the gear shift. Instead, auto makers will need to provide a more compelling case to get people to cede control of their car to a computer.

The strategy for getting Americans to forget about the steering wheel can be described in one word; Infotainment.

Here’s the scenario…you climb into your 2027 Toyota Camry, and are greeted by a pleasant voice confirming that it’s time to go to work. You let the car know that you want to try a new coffee shop on the way. As you are getting comfortable, the car lets you know that it’s 16 minutes to coffee and 48 minutes to work. At that point the environment shifts to work mode and you’re looking at multiple digital monitors, perhaps even a large projected screen in front of you…all showing your work and productivity data. Instead of a steering wheel you’re presented a keyboard and like that you’ve started the work day. There’s a very real chance that your mobile office will be nicer than the one at work.

Car makers will delight the senses by transforming the car interior into a sanctuary devoted to entertainment or productivity. While a computer takes care of the driving, the car will become a personal cocoon, isolating the rider from outside noise and distractions, providing digital content available on demand.

There’s no argument that many car buyers will continue to demand driver controls. They may let the car drive itself at times, but will want the ability to take control into their own hands. However, as automotive infotainment products evolve and the car interior becomes a beautiful retreat with instant access to a plethora of digital information options many will trade the steering wheel in favor of entertainment, let the computer do the work and in the process redefine the entire driving experience.

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There is a global trend toward sharing things, collaborative consumption. Home sharing through AirBnB is now a $2.5 billion business. There are pleasure boat sharing businesses, co-working office spaces, and of course vehicle sharing services.   Consumers are driving the variety and velocity of these changes and putting added pressure on companies to improve their speed-to-market.  Enterprise teams need to collaborate more effectively and coordinate their activities more seamlessly for companies to ride these trends successfully.

Take the automotive industry, which arguably is going through its biggest changes since the introduction of the assembly line.

Changes coming to the automotive industry.

We tend to take the status of private cars as a given, but technology is unleashing important changes in the automotive marketplace. Product-service hybrids like mobility-as-a-service are about to appear on the streets.  According to the Boston Consulting Group, in five years, 35 million people globally will be using ride-sharing services, up from 5.8 million now.  That means 550,000 fewer cars sold each year than normal.  (Portland Press Herald, May 16, 2016)

On the positive side, the accelerating push of the auto market toward mobility-as-a-service is predicted to create up to $1.5 trillion worth of new auto industry revenue in that same time frame, from on-demand mobility and data driven services.  Though vehicle sales may take a hit, actual car usage will increase because people who don’t own cars will begin using them as an extension of the rapid transit system.   Not surprisingly, OEMs are beginning to compensate for vehicle sales losses by investing in car share businesses. This kind of investment can bring new car designs that improve car share operations, fuel consumption, and emissions reduction.

So Daimler has MyTaxi.  Toyota has a strategic arrangement with Uber. General Motors is working with Lyft. Tesla is not to be outdone with their vision of a fleet of fully autonomous MaaS cars all over the globe that can be summoned by a smartphone application.

Another big change is the car-sharing model. The Ford Motor Company is currently testing a car sharing program that helps people rent out cars they purchased from the automaker to prescreened customers, as a way of defraying the cost of vehicle maintenance. The trial is inviting 14,000 new car purchasers in the U.S. and 12,000 in London to sign up for the Peer-2-Peers Car Sharing option in the U.S. or the easyCar Club in London to rent their new vehicles to pre-screened drivers for short-term use.

Ford CEO, Mark Fields, says the financial case for investing in the mobility space is too compelling to ignore.  He points out that global revenue at traditional automakers totals $2.3 trillion a year, while the transportation business, including taxis, buses and car-sharing, is worth $5.4 trillion.” This is why Fields says, “We want to transform, fundamentally, the relationship between an automaker and a customer.”   (Portand Press Herald, May 16, 2016)

A study by McKinsey & Company  last year predicted major changes in the design of cars to begin soon.  Software competence is increasingly becoming one of the most important differentiating factors in the industry, for domain areas including active safety, connectivity, and infotainment.  Adding that as vehicles are further integrated into the “connected world,” OEMs will be forced to participate in the new mobility ecosystems that emerge as a result of technology and consumer trends.

OEMS are also getting more concerned about the overall customer experience they deliver, from the sales process, to the vehicle experience, to customer service, and so on.  They are eager to stay engaged with the customer over the long term.  For instance, the aim of the FordPass mobility program, launched this past April, is to keep contact with the customer by helping with his ongoing mobility needs.  A vehicle sale isn’t the immediate goal, but it may be down the road, no pun intended.  “We are investing in future-proofing,” says Elana Ford, who is the great-great-granddaughter of Henry Ford and who led the development of FordPass. (Portland Press Herald, May 16, 2016)  As Ford says, “People spend about 4.5 hours per year in a dealership, but they spend 900 hours per year being mobile.  So how can we have an ongoing dialogue?”

What are the implications?

The marketplace is moving very fast.  OEMs are not accustomed to having to move that quickly.  They are not nimble technology start-ups like Uber.  They operate on medium to long term cycles (e.g., 5+ years to bring on a new car model).  But now to succeed they have to be more agile and efficient. Their customers are not patient, but will flock to the company that can fulfill their needs the fastest.

So OEMs need to learn how to prototype rapidly and to collaborate across functions to get their products to market quickly.  This requires coordination, which is often hard for them.  They also need to comply with company and industry standards, institute faster testing cycles, and incorporate customer feedback into their product strategies.  They need software to streamline and improve workflow processes.  With the right technical tools, they will not only survive these momentous shifts, but be the ultimate winners.

 To learn more about how Jama provides better, faster product definition, change management and functional safety verification for automotive providers, please visit  https://www.jamasoftware.com/solutions/automotive/.