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In many ways, 2021 was a continuation of the changes brought about in 2020, a year that\u2019s been described as \u201cunprecedented\u201d and \u201cunparalleled.\u201d In a unique way, 2021 has offered us an idea of evolving innovations and technology on the horizon for teams across industries. These changing conditions will present a variety of new landscapes and will offer unique challenges, opportunities, and more than likely, many surprises.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n As we enter a new year of further changes, Jama Software asked\u00a0select\u00a0thought leaders \u2013 both internal and external \u2013 across various industries for the trends and events they foresee unfolding over the next year and beyond.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n This is the fourth part of our five-part series. In this blog, we asked for feedback on product and systems development trends anticipated for the airborne product and systems development industry in 2022 and beyond. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n First, we\u2019ll hear from\u00a0<\/span>Cary Bryczek<\/strong> – Principal Solutions Architect at Jama Software,\u00a0<\/span>Michael Soden<\/strong>\u00a0–\u00a0Lead Product Manager for Safety Analysis at Ansys,\u00a0and Mazen El Hout\u00a0<\/strong>–\u00a0Product Manager for Embedded Software for A & D at Ansys.<\/span> Then, we hear from<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Vance Hilderman<\/strong>\u00a0–\u00a0<\/span>Chief Technical Officer at AFuzion Inc.<\/span><\/p>\n Read our other\u00a02022 Industry Predictions<\/strong>\u00a0here:\u00a0Part One<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013\u00a0Engineering Predictions<\/em>, Part Two<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>\u2013\u00a0Medical Device Predictions<\/em>, Part Three<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 Automotive Predictions, and Part Five<\/a> <\/strong>– Insurance Development Market Predictions.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0What product, systems, and software development trends are you expecting to take shape in\u00a02022?<\/strong><\/p>\n Cary\u00a0Bryczek, Jama Software<\/span><\/b>:<\/span><\/b>\u00a0In 2022 we will see even more new space launch companies and unmanned\u00a0aircraft\u00a0systems (UAS) both enter the market as new companies and those that are already in the market will receive more funding. The commercial demand and competition among companies is driving some\u00a0very exciting\u00a0technologies to mature at a rapid pace.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0What are the biggest trends\u00a0you\u2019re\u00a0seeing in your industry right now? How will they\u00a0impact\u00a0A&D product, systems, and software\u00a0development?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Ansys:<\/span><\/b> Regarding\u00a0commercial\u00a0aviation, major trends include the rise of the new air mobility to transport passengers in jammed\u00a0cities. Those air-taxi services would require air vehicles capable\u00a0of\u00a0taking off\u00a0and\u00a0landing\u00a0vertically. Some of them are piloted and\u00a0others\u00a0fully autonomous.\u00a0Most of them rely on fuel-alternative propulsion systems, such as full electric or hybrid propulsion, which means completely new energy and system architectures that should be safe and performant. <\/span><\/p>\n Also, fixed-wing transport\u00a0aircraft\u00a0are moving\u00a0in\u00a0the\u00a0autonomous direction with single pilot\u00a0aircraft\u00a0initiatives at some\u00a0aircraft\u00a0manufacturers with high impacts on cockpit display systems. In the defense industry, autonomous systems are also gaining attention with the use case of\u00a0manned\u00a0fighter jet supported by unmanned loyal wingman, or a swarm of drones doing formation, involving the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques to extend capabilities of traditional methods of developing control systems and software.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0From an A&D engineering toolset perspective, what are some of the processes you think forward-thinking firms will be working to\u00a0leverage\u00a0or incorporate into their process and why?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Ansys:<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span>Key development processes include Model-Based System Engineering, Model-Based Safety Analysis, and Code Generation, to cope with <\/span>the\u00a0<\/span>increasing complexity of next generation systems and reduce their time to market and cost of development. Model-based Design leads to harmonized safety analysis with system and software designs. In addition, cloud-based computing is becoming\u00a0<\/span>essential<\/span>\u00a0to benefit from high performance computing services and effective storage, easier maintenance, and better collaboration.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0In terms of product and systems development, what do you think will remain the same over the next decade? What will change?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Cary\u00a0Bryczek, Jama Software<\/span><\/b>:<\/span><\/b>\u00a0It is such an exciting time for technology right now and a lot of what\u00a0consumer<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0aerospace systems and defense systems will see in the next decade is already here. We will just see that technology\u00a0is being\u00a0incorporated into\u00a0more and more\u00a0systems.\u00a0AI\u00a0capabilities will do\u00a0more and more\u00a0of the heavy lifting such as data parsing so that systems such as the Mars Reconnaissance Rover (MRO) can\u00a0provide\u00a0selective data back to engineers faster. The explosion of data is at the heart of everything. It is both a boon and a burden. Those companies that learn to exploit the sheer amount of data being captured from every device and system will be faster to bring their technology to market. Data privacy challenges will\u00a0likely remain\u00a0the same as they are now with political climates and some now talking about de-globalization.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0What changing regulatory guidelines do you\u00a0anticipate\u00a0having an impact on companies in 2022?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Ansys:<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span>Several regulations are impacting new systems design. First, the regulations related to the usage of AI and machine learning inside autonomous air vehicles are driven by standardization such as\u00a0<\/span>European Organization for Civil Aviation Equipment<\/span><\/a> (EUROCAE) <\/span>where Ansys contributes with major industrial players. Regulations related to VTOL\u00a0aircraft\u00a0with advanced\u00a0<\/span>controls, <\/span>controls<\/span>\u00a0are published as special conditions and\u00a0<\/span>mean<\/span>\u00a0of compliance by certification authorities (<\/span>eg<\/span>\u00a0EASA). Additionally, many other regulations and special conditions are related to Hybrid Electric and Hydrogen propulsion. <\/span><\/p>\n In terms of safety standard<\/span>s<\/span>, there is a new revision of safety standard: SAE ARP4761 A (including Model-Based Safety Analysis), expected to be published in 2022 extending safety analysis methods and the DO-356, describing cybersecurity methods and consideration for airborne systems. As for engineering\u00a0<\/span>standards<\/span>, the Object Management Group<\/a><\/span> is releasing\u00a0a new version\u00a02 of\u00a0<\/span>SySML<\/span>\u00a0on system modeling language, which will transform the way engineers create their systems design.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0How do you foresee regulations shifting in\u00a0Air and Space Product and Systems Development\u00a0over the next decade?\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Cary\u00a0Bryczek, Jama Software<\/span><\/b>:\u00a0<\/span><\/b>Regulators in the EU, US<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0and China will all be trying to find ways to accelerate changes to their existing regulations\u00a0in order to\u00a0keep pace with the rate of\u00a0aircraft\u00a0(manned\u00a0and unmanned) technology change and new development. The most challenging of regulations center around the safe operation of unmanned\u00a0aircraft\u00a0systems (UAS) as well as classification of new types of\u00a0aircraft\u00a0that use existing airframes but now use different propulsion and avionics systems.\u00a0Aircraft\u00a0of today and tomorrow just\u00a0don\u2019t\u00a0fit neatly into the regulatory bodies existing definitions. For space systems and operations, there are no less than 42 ISO standards alone under development. Many of\u00a0these center\u00a0around space debris, interference, and quality measures.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0What are some of the biggest challenges you think A&D engineering firms will be working to overcome in 2022?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Ansys:<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span>Building sustainable and performant system architectures without safety compromises is a big challenge we see at the product design level. \u00a0More and more autonomous and connected systems imply more vulnerability in the systems, therefore cybersecurity is mandatory to prevent cyberattacks. \u00a0<\/span>Electronics reliability<\/span>\u00a0for autonomous vehicles is another important element to consider when dealing with the physics of failure. Finally, a key\u00a0<\/span>element<\/span>\u00a0to boost productivity and\u00a0<\/span>innovation<\/span>\u00a0is\u00a0<\/span>to\u00a0provide<\/span> scalable and cloud accessible engineering tools, for a more collaborative and distributed\u00a0way\u00a0of working.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0Any major disruptions to\u00a0Air and Space Product and Systems Development\u00a0industry\u00a0you\u2019re\u00a0anticipating\u00a0in 2022?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Cary\u00a0Bryczek, Jama Software<\/span><\/b>:\u00a0<\/span><\/b>The COVID Pandemic will remain a major disruptor across the board. Supply chains are highly complex with manufacturers juggling multiple suppliers and subcontractors to design and integrate the products. Just in time materials processes which prior to covid\u00a0were\u00a0a best\u00a0practice\u00a0is\u00a0now one cause of delays. Larger companies will seek to produce components themselves or acquire the companies that can do this for them.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0What sorts of process adjustments do you think development teams will\u00a0need to make\u00a0to be successful in 2022?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Cary\u00a0Bryczek, Jama Software<\/span><\/b>:<\/span><\/b>\u00a0Regulatory training at all levels of both engineering and business staff will be important. Digital engineering tools and approaches are being pushed into both engineers and project\u00a0managers’\u00a0hands at an increasing pace. Understanding not only how to use them but how to use them within the\u00a0highly complex\u00a0regulatory landscape in an efficient manner will be key.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0What do you think will remain the same in your industry throughout\u00a02022?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Ansys:\u00a0<\/span><\/b>The full electric air mobility, even though it seems very promising, will most likely not be fully mature in 2022, in <\/span>term<\/span>s<\/span> of technology, regulations, and infrastructure.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0What do you predict for regulation in the A&D industry in\u00a02022?\u00a0Will\u00a0those trends still be prevalent 5 years from now? 10 years?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Ansys<\/span><\/b>:\u00a0<\/span>Many regulations for the use of AI in embedded software related to the certified context will emerge leading to fully autonomous flight for small\/medium aircraft.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0What do you think will be some of the differentiators between a company surviving to see 2030, and those that do not?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Cary\u00a0Bryczek, Jama Software<\/span><\/b>:<\/span><\/b>\u00a0The companies that will successfully survive to 2030 are those who are able to A) continuously perform rapid impact analyses during any\u00a0phase\u00a0their product\u2019s lifecycles as requirements change and disruptions to supply chains take place. Companies that do not have robustly integrated design and lifecycle data or only\u00a0utilize\u00a0manual\u00a0processes\u00a0are at a higher risk of failure when the product they bring to market is late or are at the mercy of delays to their supply chains. B) Companies will need to walk a careful tightrope of exposing enough of their project to the outside world to attract much needed investment funding and yet\u00a0still keep\u00a0their intellectual property secret. C) Companies will need to invent new ways to\u00a0retain\u00a0their talent to prevent evaporation of knowledge and their specific\u00a0expertise.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Q:\u00a0Where do you see Jama Software fitting in as the product development landscape evolves, and what can our customers expect as 2022 approaches?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Cary\u00a0Bryczek, Jama Software<\/span><\/b>:\u00a0<\/span><\/b>The gap between the customer and business stakeholders and engineering groups historically has been where the engineering side is a black box. The proliferation of digital engineering strategies is now making the box more transparent. The practice of requirements management as a now collaborative effort across teams enables faster communication between teams and faster validation of requirements \u2013 Validation of the RIGHT requirements not to be confused with product validation. Requirements today must traverse many tools in the digital ecosystem. In 2022 more Jama Software customers will integrate requirements with tools in their digital ecosystem enabling higher degrees of collaboration and efficient analysis.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Vance Hilderman,\u00a0CTO,\u00a0AFuzion\u00a0Inc:\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cIt was the best of times; it was the worst of times.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Surely, Charles Dickens was the earliest aerospace forecaster when he wrote those famous words decades before the Wright brother\u2019s first flight.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>But was Dickens really channeling the Covid\u00a0pandemic and today\u2019s aerospace unprecedented changes?\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Likely not, but the \u201cmore things change, the more they remain the same\u201d holds true.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Every two or three years I\u2019m asked to predict next year\u2019s aerospace news. I always chuckle, then provide a disclaimer, \u201cIn one baseball season, Ted Williams failed to get on base almost 60% of the time; that made his season the world\u2019s best.\u201d That\u2019s right: 40% success in baseball, and entrepreneurship, is a winning season. With that disclaimer at heart, here\u2019s my \u201cwinning season for 2022\u201d predictions:<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
\nAirborne\u00a0Predictions 2022\u00a0Part I:\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n
Design Trends<\/strong><\/h5>\n
Tool Innovation<\/strong><\/h5>\n
\nRELATED POST:<\/strong> Webinar Recap – Transformative Airborne Systems Development<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n
\nRegulations<\/strong><\/h5>\n
Biggest Challenges<\/strong><\/h5>\n
Predictions<\/strong><\/h5>\n
Evolving Landscape<\/strong><\/h5>\n
\nRELATED POST:<\/strong> Aerospace Compliance – When Failure Is Not An Option<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n
\nAirborne Predictions 2022 Part 2:\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n
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